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The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) moderated its currency purchases, keeping reserves above $50 billion. Despite the increase in the wholesale dollar, price recovery was not sustained, and interest rates in pesos rose as well. The divergence between futures prices and the spot market indicates a lack of confidence in the sustainability of the exchange rate recovery.
By Ámbito
The blue dollar dropped $5, closing at $1,565 on October 21, which represents a 0.3% decrease from the previous day. This marked the first decline in four days after reaching a historic nominal high. Despite the drop, the blue dollar has accumulated a $20 increase compared to last Thursday's close.
By Ámbito
The Argentine market saw an improvement in stocks and a decrease in the country risk, which fell to 661 basis points, although factors still pressure local debt. The stabilization of U.S. rates and relief in emerging markets helped this recovery, but local political uncertainty still affects debt assets due after 2027. Despite the drop in country risk, Global bonds showed declines, reflecting investor caution.
By El Cronista
Agricultural companies in Argentina are facing increased difficulties in accessing financing, leading to delays in investment decisions. A report shows that 41.3% of surveyed companies postponed at least one decision due to higher credit costs. While the need for credit remains, investment intentions are still present, indicating that companies are trying to adapt to new conditions. The use of dollar-denominated financing has increased, prompting careful assessment of currency risks.
By La Nación
Economist Santiago Casas from EcoAnalytics notes that Argentina's country risk, now at 650 points, is rising due to concerns about debt maturities after 2027. While public finances appear solid, household incomes are lagging behind inflation, which may lead to social discontent and impact government re-election odds. Casas also highlighted that despite fiscal consolidation, he does not foresee wage growth for workers, predicting a challenging outlook for Argentine families.
By El Cronista
ADRs and Argentine sovereign bonds experienced a rebound on Wednesday, with gains of up to 6% on Wall Street and the country risk falling below 670 basis points. However, political uncertainty and doubts about Argentina's economic outlook continue to affect investor appetite. While local securities seek to recover, international market conditions also play a significant role in their performance.
By Ámbito
In September, interest rates for SME loans in pesos rose to nearly 27% annually, while in dollars they decreased to an average of 7%. Despite the increase in rates, the number of transactions grew and financing terms were extended. The rise in financing costs contrasts with an expected inflation of 25.34% for the coming year.
By Ámbito
The market projects that the dollar will remain stable before the start of electoral volatility, fluctuating between $1,500 and $1,550. While a slight increase is anticipated due to inflation and political expectations, analysts discount a significant appreciation of the peso and foresee a period of calm until electoral trading intensifies. The Central Bank's estimates also foresee a moderate rise in the official exchange rate in the coming months.
By Ámbito
With a year to go until the elections, the Argentine market is exhibiting increasing volatility and distrust regarding President Javier Milei's potential reelection. Government approval has fluctuated slightly, but there are concerns about economic slowdown and stagnant wages that could complicate his position in the elections. The decline in bond prices and the rise in country risk reflect this uncertainty among investors.
By El Cronista
In a recent analysis, Gustavo Quintana, an operator at PR Cambios, discussed the slight increase in the dollar in the Argentine market, suggesting it is a technical correction after weeks of declines. This behavior is attributed to seasonal factors and increased demand for foreign currency towards the end of the month, although it is considered that the exchange rate does not present an extraordinary change. Quintana also indicated that the impact on inflation in October from this increase in the exchange rate would be limited, unless the situation escalates in the last week of the month.
By Perfil
Economist Eduardo Coria Lahoz analyzed the volatility of international markets and the decline in public debt bonds, which he considers a global phenomenon and not exclusive to Argentina. He emphasized that despite improvements in public finances under Javier Milei's administration, the country remains exposed to international financial turbulence. Lahoz pointed out that the liquidation of bonds in economies like France affects the perception and cost of Argentine bonds, even though the local fiscal situation shows significant improvement.
By Perfil
Iván Vizental, an economist and investment director at Quinto, recommends adjusting investment decisions in the electoral context of Argentina by reducing exposure to sovereign bonds and increasing corporate bond holdings. In an interview, he emphasizes the importance of caution during election years, noting that history shows this strategy has been rewarded. He also mentions that the Bopreal bond issued by the Central Bank could offer good returns, though with certain risks depending on Javier Milei's political future.
By El Cronista
The implementation of Inocencia Fiscal II, aimed at encouraging Argentines to use saved dollars in the economy, raises uncertainties due to the lack of regulations defining its specific functioning. Although the law is already in effect, necessary provisions have not been formalized, which could affect the deadlines for income tax declarations. Furthermore, the absence of adherence from provinces and municipalities poses fiscal risks for taxpayers utilizing this initiative.
By La Nación